The peace deal meant to save the Coalition may have just signed the death warrant for Sussan Ley’s leadership. In a desperate bid to reunite with the Nationals after a 17-day divorce, the Opposition Leader has made concessions so significant that her own MPs are calling it a "surrender." The backlash is immediate, visceral, and it is driving undecided Liberals straight into the arms of her rival, Angus Taylor.

The agreement, announced on Sunday afternoon, sees the rogue Nationals frontbenchers returning to the fold with a slap on the wrist—suspensions until March 1st—rather than the six-month exile Ley initially demanded. For many Liberals, this is not compromise; it is capitulation. "It is the destruction of the Liberal Party," one furious MP told The Guardian. "We are condemning ourselves to being seen as the junior partner to One Nation."

The Taylor Momentum

The political calculus in Canberra has shifted overnight. Angus Taylor, the shadow defence spokesperson who has been quietly circling the leadership, is the primary beneficiary of Ley’s perceived weakness. [...](asc_slot://start-slot-11)Sources confirm that a bloc of MPs who were previously on the fence now view a leadership spill as "inevitable." They argue that by bowing to the Nationals—a party pursuing a hard-right agenda to counter Pauline Hanson—Ley has abandoned the urban Liberal base.

The deal allows David Littleproud and his deputy Kevin Hogan to attend shadow cabinet meetings despite technically being suspended, a nuance that has infuriated Liberal moderates. They see it as rewarding bad behavior. "Why would anyone vote for a party that lets the Nationals dictate terms?" the anonymous MP asked, capturing the mood of a party room in turmoil.

• The "Unconscionable" Betrayal: Liberals remain bitter over the Nationals' decision to break ranks on hate speech laws, the catalyst for the original split.
• The Spill Looming: While a spill is unlikely at Tuesday’s meeting due to Senate estimates, MPs are already war-gaming a showdown for later in the week.

A Party at War with Itself

Sussan Ley insists the Coalition is "stronger together," but the reality is a marriage held together by duct tape and resentment. By prioritizing the Coalition over the credibility of her own party’s discipline, Ley has gambled everything.

As parliament returns, the question is not if Angus Taylor will challenge, but when. And thanks to this "peace deal," his numbers just got a whole lot better.