General Mamadi Doumbouya is set to be sworn in as Guinea’s "civilian" president today, completing the classic dictator’s metamorphosis from a coup leader in camouflage to a statesman in a tailored suit.

Four years after storming the presidential palace and arresting Alpha Condé, the 41-year-old strongman has secured an 87% election victory that observers have termed a "statistical miracle" and critics a "farse." The swearing-in ceremony in Conakry marks the final death knell of the transition to democracy that was promised—and repeatedly postponed—since 2021.

The "Benevolent" Dictator?

Doumbouya’s image management has been clinical. Gone are the dark sunglasses and the red beret that defined his early junta days. In their place are boubous and tracksuits, projecting an image of a "man of the people." His social media is a curated feed of infrastructure projects and baby-kissing, designed to mask the reality of a shrinking civic space.

• The Opposition Void: The 87% win was achieved against a backdrop of exiled opponents and banned political parties. Major opposition figures like Cellou Dalein Diallo were effectively barred from competing, leaving Doumbouya to race against himself.
• The Regional Trend: Guinea is not an outlier; it is a trendsetter. From Mali to Burkina Faso, military leaders are realizing that they don't need to hand over power; they just need to change their clothes. The African Union’s policy of "zero tolerance for coups" is failing the wardrobe test.

The Morning After

As the cannons fire the 21-gun salute in Conakry, the international community watches with weary resignation. Doumbouya has successfully played the game. But legitimacy is not something you can wear like a new suit. The silence on the streets of Conakry is not approval; it is the quiet before the next storm.