The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is staring at an implosion. Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, the firebrand face of the party’s "Young Turks," has drawn a line in the sand, threatening to convene a parallel National Delegates Conference (NDC) if the upcoming elections are rigged.

In a brazen challenge to the party’s old guard, Owino alleges a sinister plot to doctor the delegate lists. He claims that "power brokers" at Orange House are importing fake delegates from Rift Valley and North Eastern to block his ascent to the party leadership—a seat left vacant by the legendary Raila Odinga.

"Baada ya Baba ni Babu"

Owino’s slogan, "After Baba, it is Babu," has become a rallying cry for the youth base, but a threat to the establishment. "We will not allow them to ferry strangers to Kasarani to decide our future," Owino thundered during a press briefing in Nairobi. "We will inspect that list name by name. If they play games, we will hold our own NDC and the people will decide."

• The Generational Rift: This is more than a squabble; it is a war for succession. The party is split between the "Old Guard"—led by figures like Oburu Odinga and Gladys Wanga, who favor a cautious, broad-based approach—and Owino’s radical faction, which wants to aggressively confront the Ruto administration.
• The Shadow of the State: Owino hinted that the "manipulation" might have external fingerprints, suggesting that the state prefers a pliable ODM leadership over his confrontational style.

The Looming Split

If Owino makes good on his threat, ODM risks a repeat of the FORD-Kenya split of the 1990s. With the 2027 elections on the horizon, a fractured opposition is exactly what the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition is praying for. The coming weeks will determine if the Orange party ripens into a new era or rots from the inside.