Embakasi East MP Babu Owino has drawn a jagged line in the sand, threatening to split the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) down the middle with a parallel National Delegates Conference (NDC) if the "old guard" continues its alleged scheme to rig him out of succession.

The threat, issued during a fiery press briefing in Nairobi, marks the most dangerous escalation yet in the war for the party’s soul. At stake is not just the Nairobi gubernatorial ticket, but the very control of Kenya’s grand old party in the post-Raila Odinga era. Owino’s ultimatum—"Baada ya Baba ni Babu"—is no longer just a slogan; it is a declaration of intent to dismantle the status quo.

The "List of Shame"

Speaking to a charged crowd, Owino claimed to have intelligence on a "doctored" delegate list being curated at Orange House. He alleges that power brokers, terrified of his grassroots mobilization, are purging youthful delegates from the register in favor of compliant loyalists from Rift Valley and North Eastern.

• The Parallel Threat: "If they ferry strangers to Kasarani to decide our future, we will convene our own NDC at Jacaranda," Owino thundered. "We will have two centers of power, and let the people decide who carries the day."
• The "Old Guard" Factor: The MP pointed an accusing finger at a faction led by party stalwarts whom he accuses of being "bedfellows with the state," aiming to hand the party over to a "system-friendly" candidate.
• The Stakes: A parallel NDC would effectively mirror the 1990s FORD-Kenya split, potentially sinking ODM’s chances in 2027 before the campaign even begins.

Youth vs. The Establishment

The friction is generational. Owino represents a radical, confrontational wing of the party that feels sidelined by the older generation’s preference for boardroom consensus. "They want a boardroom deal; we want a bedroom war," one of Owino’s aides told this writer. The MP’s camp believes the party’s gentrification is alienating its core base in the informal settlements.

Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi observes, "Babu is playing a high-stakes game of chicken. He knows the party cannot afford a split, so he is daring the establishment to blink. If they don't, he burns the house down." As the clock ticks towards the scheduled NDC, the silence from the party leader is deafening, leaving the orange house precariously balanced on a precipice.