NAIROBI – On Wednesday, 26 November 2025 (EAT), the global economic and technological landscape remains heavily influenced by China's strategic dominance over rare earth elements (REEs), a group of 17 minerals essential for manufacturing everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to advanced military hardware. According to multiple geological and market surveys, China currently controls approximately 70% of global rare earth mining and a staggering 90% of the complex processing required to make them usable. This near-monopoly, the result of decades of state-supported industrial policy, grants Beijing immense leverage in geopolitical and trade disputes, particularly with the United States.

While this high-stakes global dynamic plays out, Kenya finds itself sitting on a potentially transformative, yet largely untapped, resource. In Kwale County, the forested Mrima Hill is estimated to hold one of the world's largest deposits of rare earths and niobium, with valuations estimated to be worth over USD 62 billion. This discovery places Kenya at the centre of a global scramble for critical minerals as Western nations desperately seek to diversify their supply chains away from China.

The Kenyan Opportunity and Its Complexities

The Government of Kenya has expressed its ambition to increase the mining sector's contribution to the national GDP from less than 1% to 10% by 2030, with the resources at Mrima Hill being a cornerstone of this strategy. Proponents argue that responsible extraction could generate substantial revenue, create jobs, and spur infrastructure development in a historically neglected region. The current administration, through the Ministry of Mining and Blue Economy, has emphasized a policy of local value addition, aiming to process minerals within Kenya rather than exporting raw ore.

However, the path to development is fraught with challenges that mirror the complexities of resource extraction across Africa. The Mrima Hill site is not only a mineral deposit but also a sacred forest for the local Digo community, containing ancestral graves and unique biodiversity. Past attempts to exploit the site have been mired in legal battles. A high-profile case involving Cortec Mining Kenya Limited saw the government revoke a mining licence in 2013, leading to a lengthy international arbitration dispute that Kenya ultimately won, with tribunals ruling the licence was issued unlawfully without the required environmental impact assessments. These historical issues underscore the deep-seated concerns among local communities about environmental degradation, displacement, and equitable benefit-sharing.

Global Response to China's Dominance

The urgency to develop alternative sources like Kenya's is driven by aggressive international policies. The European Union, which depends on China for 98% of its rare earth needs, has enacted the Critical Raw Materials Act. This legislation, which entered into force on May 23, 2024, sets ambitious targets for 2030: sourcing at least 10% of its needs from domestic extraction, 40% from EU-based processing, and 25% from recycling, while ensuring no more than 65% of any strategic raw material comes from a single third country.

Similarly, the United States is investing billions to rebuild its domestic rare earth capabilities, including funding processing facilities and forming strategic alliances with partners like Australia and Japan to create trustworthy supply chains. These initiatives reflect a growing consensus in Western capitals that dependency on a single, strategic competitor for materials vital to the green energy transition and national defence is an unacceptable vulnerability.

The Environmental and Geopolitical Stakes

The development of rare earth resources carries significant environmental risks. The extraction and refining processes are notoriously polluting, often involving toxic chemicals like ammonium sulfate that can contaminate soil and groundwater. The process also generates vast amounts of waste, including radioactive materials such as thorium and uranium, which are often found alongside rare earth ores. China's initial dominance was partly achieved through lax environmental regulations, a reality that has left a legacy of severe pollution in mining regions like Ganzhou. For Kenya, balancing the economic promise of Mrima Hill with the imperative of sustainable and environmentally sound practices will be a critical test of governance.

As nations like Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda explore their rare earth potential, they enter a geopolitically charged arena. The global contest for these minerals is not merely economic; it is a core component of the strategic competition between the U.S. and China. For Kenya, navigating the interests of these global powers while safeguarding national interests and ensuring community and environmental well-being will require transparent governance, robust regulatory frameworks, and strategic international partnerships. The future of Mrima Hill is thus a microcosm of a larger global challenge: securing the materials for a technological future without repeating the environmental and social injustices of past resource booms.