China is set to tax condoms and other contraceptives for the first time in over three decades, a desperate measure to reverse a plummeting birth rate that threatens its economic future. The move ends a tax exemption policy that was a cornerstone of its infamous one-child policy.

Beginning January 1, a 13% value-added tax (VAT) will be applied to these goods. This policy shift underscores Beijing's deep anxiety over a demographic crisis, as its population has shrunk for at least three consecutive years, a stark turnaround from the era of strict population control.

For over 30 years, from 1980 until it was formally ended in 2016, the Chinese government enforced a strict one-child policy to curb what it saw as runaway population growth. Now, facing a rapidly aging society and a shrinking workforce, the state is deploying a mix of incentives and penalties to encourage citizens to have more children.

A Tale of Two Demographics

The situation in China presents a mirror image to Kenya's demographic landscape. While Beijing confronts an aging population and a fertility rate that has fallen to just 1.01 births per woman, Kenya's population is young and expanding. Kenya's birth rate in 2025 is estimated at 26.79 per 1,000 people, and the fertility rate is approximately 3.17 children per woman, well above the population replacement level.

This contrast highlights different national challenges. China's government is offering childcare subsidies, extended parental leave, and now, disincentivizing contraception to avert economic stagnation. Meanwhile, Kenya focuses on harnessing its "demographic dividend" by investing in education and job creation for its youth, with a modern contraceptive prevalence rate among married women reaching 57% as of 2022.

Public Ridicule and Expert Doubts

The new tax has been met with ridicule on Chinese social media platforms like Weibo. "They are truly going to extreme lengths just to make us have children," one user wrote, reflecting a sentiment that the policy is another form of state control over citizens' bodies.

Analysts remain skeptical that a small price increase on contraceptives will meaningfully impact family planning decisions. Yuan Mei, an assistant professor at Singapore Management University, noted that life decisions are shaped more by "the high cost of raising a child and the long working hours" than by the price of condoms. Experts also warn the move could increase public health risks, such as a rise in sexually transmitted infections, which have been increasing in China.

The policy change is part of a broader VAT law modernization. While the government also introduced tax breaks for childcare and marriage services, the message is clear: after decades of discouraging births, Beijing is now pushing hard in the opposite direction. Yet, as one independent demographer, He Yafu, stated, "this measure is unlikely to have a significant effect on increasing the fertility rate."