Starting today, the cost of intimacy in China has officially gone up, with Beijing betting that making contraceptives more expensive might just force a demographic U-turn. In a move that has sparked both ridicule and concern across the Asian giant, the government has effectively put a price tag on preventing pregnancy.

The world’s second-largest economy has introduced a 13% sales tax on contraceptives—including condoms and birth control pills—while simultaneously exempting childcare, marriage services, and elderly care from Value Added Tax (VAT). It is a stark reversal of the tax breaks that had been in place since 1994, a time when China was still aggressively enforcing its infamous one-child policy.

A Radical Policy U-Turn

This fiscal overhaul is not merely about revenue; it is social engineering through the tax code. Faced with an ageing workforce and a sluggish economy, Beijing is scrambling to encourage young people to marry and procreate. Official figures paint a grim picture: China’s population has shrunk for three consecutive years.

Data indicates that only 9.54 million babies were born in 2024—roughly half the number recorded just a decade ago. For context, while Kenya’s population is booming with a median age of roughly 20, China is rapidly greying, creating a looming labor shortage that could impact everything from global manufacturing costs to the demand for Kenyan exports like tea and coffee.

• New Tax: 13% VAT on condoms, pills, and contraceptive devices.
• New Exemptions: Childcare, elderly care, and marriage-related services now tax-free.
• The Goal: Reverse a three-year trend of population decline.

The Public Backlash

The policy has been met with sharp skepticism on Chinese social media. Critics argue that a small hike in the price of condoms is negligible compared to the astronomical cost of raising a child in cities like Shanghai or Beijing. As one retailer urged shoppers to stock up before the price hike, netizens responded with dark humor.

"I'll buy a lifetime's worth of condoms now," one user joked on Weibo, while another noted dryly that people can easily "tell the difference between the price of a condom and that of raising a child."

Beyond the economics, health experts are sounding the alarm. There are genuine fears that discouraging contraceptive use could lead to a spike in unwanted pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections, including HIV. The move highlights the tension between state demographic goals and public health necessities.

"It would take a lot more than pricey condoms to persuade [us] to have children," noted one commentator, summarizing the mood of a generation facing high living costs and economic uncertainty.