GLOBAL – Chile is set for a decisive second-round presidential election on Sunday, 14 December 2025, after a polarised first-round vote on Sunday, 16 November, placed leftist candidate Jeannette Jara and far-right leader José Antonio Kast as the top two contenders. The outcome of this runoff will determine the political direction of the world's largest copper producer, carrying significant weight for global markets and, by extension, economies like Kenya's that are sensitive to commodity price fluctuations.

With over 83% of ballots counted by Monday morning, 17 November 2025 EAT, official results showed Ms. Jara, a member of the Communist Party and former labor minister under the incumbent government, leading with approximately 26.7% of the vote. Mr. Kast, a 59-year-old lawyer and leader of the Republican Party, secured a close second with around 24.1%. As no candidate achieved the 50% majority required for an outright win, the nation now faces a stark choice between two deeply opposing political visions.

The election has been dominated by voter concerns over a rise in crime and immigration, shifting the national conversation away from the focus on social inequality that propelled current President Gabriel Boric to power in 2022. President Boric, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a consecutive term, acknowledged the results, congratulating both candidates on advancing to the second round.

The Contenders and Their Platforms

Jeannette Jara, 51, represents the ruling center-left coalition, Unity for Chile. As labor minister, she successfully oversaw a popular reduction of the workweek and an increase in the minimum wage. Her platform includes pragmatic proposals to tackle the cost of living, expand social welfare programs, and lift banking secrecy to combat organized crime.

José Antonio Kast, running for president for the third time, has campaigned on a hardline law-and-order and anti-immigration platform. His proposals include building ditches along the border to stop illegal migration, expanding prison infrastructure, and granting more power to security forces. Often compared to former U.S. President Donald Trump, Kast has consolidated support from Chile's conservative and evangelical voters. Shortly after the first-round results became clear, he received the endorsement of fellow right-wing candidate Evelyn Matthei, who garnered about 13% of the vote.

Implications for Kenya and Global Markets

Chile's political future is of significant interest to Kenya due to its dominant role in the global copper market. The mining sector accounts for over 10% of Chile's GDP and more than half of its total exports. Any major policy shifts affecting mining operations, foreign investment, or export strategies could create volatility in copper prices. For Kenya, where copper is a vital raw material for infrastructure development, manufacturing, and the energy sector, price stability is crucial. A sharp increase in copper prices could translate to higher construction and production costs, potentially impacting economic growth.

A victory for Kast, who advocates for slashing corporate taxes and regulations to boost the economy, could be perceived as business-friendly by mining investors. Conversely, his nationalist stance could lead to more protectionist trade policies. A Jara presidency might seek greater environmental oversight and social returns from the mining industry, aligning with her coalition's progressive goals. Diplomatic and trade relations between Kenya and Chile have been steadily growing. The two nations established diplomatic ties in 1975 and have signed numerous cooperation agreements, including a 2019 memorandum to create a Joint Committee on Trade and Investment. A Chilean presidential visit to Kenya is anticipated in late 2025 to further strengthen these ties. The incoming administration's foreign policy will determine the trajectory of this relationship, particularly in areas of trade, investment, and shared multilateral goals.

As both candidates now pivot to attract centrist voters, the next four weeks of campaigning will be critical in shaping Chile's path and the wider economic landscape. The final outcome on 14 December will be closely watched in Nairobi and other world capitals.