NAIROBI – Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei, a key ally of President William Ruto, has publicly endorsed Dr. Oburu Oginga to take full control of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and signaled that the ruling UDA party envisions a political coalition with ODM extending beyond the 2027 general election. The statement, made on Thursday, October 30, 2025, comes just over two weeks after the sudden death of veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, a development that has profoundly reshaped Kenya's political landscape.

Raila Amolo Odinga passed away on Wednesday, October 15, 2025, at the age of 80 after suffering a cardiac arrest while receiving medical treatment in Kerala, India, his office confirmed via international news agencies. His death has created a significant leadership vacuum in ODM and the broader opposition, accelerating discussions about the party's future and its current working relationship with the government.

In the wake of his brother's death, Dr. Oburu Oginga, the Siaya Senator, was named the acting party leader by ODM's National Executive Committee on October 16, 2025, a decision that was formally endorsed by the party's Central Management Committee on Monday, October 27. In his first public statements as acting leader, Dr. Oginga affirmed his mission is to unite the party and protect its independence while continuing its cooperation with President Ruto's administration.

A Post-2027 Alliance

Senator Cherargei's comments suggest the Kenya Kwanza administration is keen on cementing this cooperation into a more formal, long-term alliance. Speaking on September 25, 2025, prior to Odinga's death, Cherargei had already indicated that high-level discussions were underway for a partnership that would last beyond 2027, potentially including a deal on the deputy president position. His latest remarks backing Dr. Oginga's leadership are seen by analysts as a strategic move by the ruling party to engage with the new power structure within ODM.

The current relationship between the two former rival parties is defined by a “broad-based government” agreement, which ODM's leadership has reiterated its commitment to until 2027. This pact was established following a period of political tension and was intended to foster peace and stability. However, the death of Raila Odinga has created fresh momentum for a deeper political realignment, with some analysts and political figures floating the possibility of a joint Ruto-Wanga ticket for 2027 or even a full merger of the two parties.

ODM at a Crossroads

Internally, ODM is navigating a period of significant transition. The party is grappling not only with the loss of its founder but also with pre-existing internal divisions over the extent of its cooperation with UDA. ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna has been a vocal critic of a deeper pact, while other senior leaders appear more open to negotiation. Acting leader Dr. Oginga has sought to quell fears of internal strife, recently stating that Sifuna remains a crucial part of the party and will not be removed, despite pressure from some quarters.

The party's Central Committee met on October 27 to chart a path forward, focusing on party reorganization and reaffirming its commitment to the current working arrangement with the government. Mombasa Governor and ODM Deputy Party Leader Abdulswamad Nassir has clarified that while ODM is firmly in the broad-based government, there is currently no formal coalition agreement with UDA.

As Kenya enters a new political chapter without one of its most dominant figures, the statements from Senator Cherargei and the leadership changes within ODM signal a potential redrawing of the country's alliance maps. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the UDA-ODM cooperation evolves into a formidable coalition for the 2027 elections or if ODM will forge a new path as an independent political force under new leadership.