Chaos Rocks Kasipul Ahead of ODM Nominations

Kasipul, Homa Bay, Kenya — September 22, 2025, 17:45 EAT.

Tension is mounting in Kasipul Constituency with just days to go before the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party nominations for the November 27 by-election. Several aspirants have accused the party of favouritism and lack of transparency, warning that any attempt to rig the process could spark backlash.

1) The Latest

• Aspirants for the ODM nomination in Kasipul say crucial information—such as names of returning officers, locations of polling and tallying centres—is still being withheld, even though nominations begin in around four days. 

• They allege that both local and national party leaders are backing a preferred candidate behind the scenes, raising fears of a “back-room deal”. 

• In response, the party’s National Elections Board (NEB) confirmed that the nominations will be conducted via secret ballot, as a measure to enhance credibility and fairness. 

2) Context in Brief

• Vacant seat: The Kasipul parliamentary seat fell vacant following the death of MP Charles Ong’ondo Were in April 2025. 

• By-election timeline: ODM primaries are scheduled to run from September 24 to 27, 2025, ahead of the official by-elections in November. 

• Aspirants: Among those seeking ODM’s ticket in Kasipul are George Otieno (alias Ajo Mbuta), Okindo Majiwa, Ottoman Adele, Boyd Were, and Newton Ogada. 

3) Law, Policy & Process

• According to ODM’s internal rules and Kenya’s election laws, primaries must be conducted in a manner that ensures fairness, transparency, and accountability, including publication of key details (returning officers, polling centres etc.).

• The Elections Act and party constitutions generally require political parties to hold fair internal nominations; failure to do so can lead to internal disputes or legal challenges.

• Secret ballots are one mechanism (already announced here) meant to limit undue influence and reduce opportunities for manipulation.

4) Voices & Stakeholders

• Aspirants (anonymous in many reports):

  “If this was going to be a free and fair nomination, by now we would already know who is standing in this election. But to date, we don’t know who is in charge.” 

  “If you are planning to steal our votes, try somewhere else, not Kasipul. We are going to refuse and tell you the party does not belong to you.” 

• Party Officials / ODM NEB: The secret ballot has been confirmed by ODM’s elections board as the agreed method. Party officials have asked aspirants and members to wait for formal announcements and avoid inflaming tensions. 

• Local public / observers: Community members are reportedly watching closely, with fears that any perceived unfairness could damage ODM’s standing in Kasipul, especially since Kasipul is traditionally a strong ODM area. 

5) Evidence & Data Box

6) Risks, Implications & Scenarios

• Credibility risk for ODM: If aspirants believe the process is rigged, party unity could suffer; disgruntled candidates might defect or go independent.

• Voter disillusionment: In a stronghold like Kasipul, perceived unfairness could lower turnout or weaken party loyalty.

• Precedent for other primaries: How Kasipul’s nominations are handled may set the tone for upcoming ODM primaries in other constituencies.

• Legal challenges: If any aspirant alleges substantial irregularity, there could be internal or judicial disputes post-nomination.

7) What We Don’t Know Yet

• Which candidate the party leadership is allegedly favouring, if at all, and on what basis.

• Details of the returning officer(s), polling centres, and tallying stations that aspirants say are being withheld.

• The official cost and logistical planning for the nomination exercise in Kasipul.

• How the ODM leadership intends to address the complaints to ensure buy-in from aggrieved aspirants.

8) Timeline

9) What to Watch

• Names and credentials of returning officers and their publishing before the nomination dates.

• Official release of list of polling stations and tallying centres by ODM.

• Whether the secret ballot process holds up, without incidents of interference or intimidation.

• Reaction from local ODM base after the nominations: whether aspirants and supporters accept the winner or contest the results.

Editor’s Note: This article reflects information as of September 22, 2025. Any developments in party clarifications, legal challenges, or procedural adjustments will be updated.

Corrections: None as of publication.