The battle lines for the national cake have been drawn, and the numbers are miles apart. The Council of Governors (CoG) has slapped the National Treasury with a non-negotiable demand for Ksh 534.9 billion as the county equitable share for the next financial year, setting the stage for a bruising fiscal showdown amidst a crippling national debt crisis.

CoG Chair Ahmed Abdullahi sounded the alarm in Nairobi, warning that the counties are teetering on the brink of paralysis. The Governors reject the Treasury’s counter-offer of Ksh 420 billion, describing it as a "starvation budget" that ignores the economic reality of soaring inflation and the rising cost of devolved functions. With the national public debt now suffocating the exchequer, the Governors argue that the counties are being asked to pay the price for Nairobi’s borrowing spree.

The Debt Trap

"We cannot service the people with empty promises," Abdullahi declared. The core of the dispute lies in the disconnect between revenue projections and actual disbursement. While the Commission on Revenue Allocation (CRA) recommended Ksh 458 billion, the Governors insist that figure is already obsolete. They cite the imminent transition of thousands of Universal Health Coverage (UHC) staff onto county payrolls and overdue salary adjustments as ticking time bombs that require immediate funding.

The standoff highlights the fragility of Kenya’s devolution experiment. As the national government prioritizes debt repayment—now consuming a massive chunk of revenue—the devolved units are left fighting for scraps. Governors warn that without the Sh535 billion, essential services like healthcare and sanitation will grind to a halt.

• The Gap: A massive Ksh 114 billion chasm separates the Governors' demand (Sh534.9B) from the Treasury's offer (Sh420B).
• The Stakes: The expiry of UHC contracts threatens to throw the county health systems into chaos if funds are not secured to absorb the workforce.

Devolution at Risk

This is not just a budget negotiation; it is a fight for the survival of county governments. If the Treasury does not blink, the Governors have threatened "total shutdown." The question now is whether the national government can find the money in a broke economy, or if the counties will be forced to close shop.

The cheque is in the mail, but the account might be empty.