Ottawa Pivots to 'Sustainable' Immigration Amid Domestic Pressures

The Canadian federal government has announced a significant recalibration of its immigration policy, detailed in the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan released by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) on Wednesday, November 5, 2025. The plan marks a strategic shift away from years of record growth, aiming to stabilize the number of new permanent residents and sharply reduce the intake of temporary residents. This move is a direct response to growing domestic pressures on housing, healthcare, and public infrastructure.

Effective from 2026, Canada will hold its annual permanent resident (PR) admissions steady at 380,000 per year through to 2028. The most dramatic change, however, is the reduction in new temporary resident arrivals—a category that includes international students and foreign workers. The target for this group will be slashed to 385,000 in 2026, a 43% decrease from the 2025 target of 673,650. The government's stated goal is to reduce the total temporary resident population to below 5% of Canada's population by the end of 2027.

Economic Streams Prioritized, Student Visas Halved

The new plan places a heavy emphasis on economic immigration, which is set to account for 64% of all permanent admissions by 2027. This adjustment is designed to attract skilled talent to fill critical labour gaps, particularly in high-demand sectors like healthcare, technology, and skilled trades. Pathways such as the Federal High Skilled program and the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) will see increased admissions, empowering provinces to select immigrants who meet their specific labour market needs.

For many Kenyans aspiring to study in Canada, the new measures present a significant hurdle. The number of new study permits will be nearly halved, dropping from a target of 305,900 in 2025 to 155,000 in 2026. Similarly, new temporary foreign worker entries will decline by 37%, from 367,750 to 230,000 over the same period. While these cuts are substantial, the plan also introduces initiatives to fast-track permanent residency for up to 33,000 skilled temporary workers already contributing to the Canadian economy between 2026 and 2027.

Implications for Kenyan Applicants

For the thousands of Kenyans who view Canada as a prime destination for work and study, this policy shift tightens an already competitive landscape. According to Statistics Canada, 3,475 Kenyans immigrated permanently between 2016 and 2021, with many more arriving on temporary visas. The most popular routes for skilled Kenyans have been economic streams managed through the Express Entry system, particularly the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), and the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP).

The increased focus on the PNP could be advantageous for Kenyans with skills and experience in sectors specifically targeted by Canadian provinces. However, the overall reduction in temporary visas suggests that gaining initial entry to Canada to work or study—often a crucial first step towards permanent residency—will become more difficult. This trend is already being felt; data from early 2025 showed that the number of Canadian visitor visas granted to Kenyans fell by 72% in 2024 compared to the previous year.

The plan's emphasis on transitioning in-Canada temporary residents to permanent status signals a clear preference for candidates with established Canadian work experience or education. Aspiring Kenyan immigrants may need to pivot their strategies, focusing on securing job offers in high-demand fields that qualify for priority streams or pursuing provincial nominations directly from Kenya. While Canada's commitment to family reunification and refugee resettlement remains stable, accounting for roughly 22% and 13% of admissions respectively, the primary pathways for economic migrants are being reshaped for a new era of managed, sustainable growth.