The political chessboard for 2027 is being arranged, but the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is refusing to pick a side just yet. In a revelation that complicates the ruling coalition's calculations, ODM luminary Oburu Oginga has declared that the party has made no definitive commitment to back President William Ruto’s re-election bid.

This statement, delivered during a high-stakes National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting in Mombasa, serves as a tactical pivot. It dispels the growing assumption that the recent "broad-based government" arrangement equates to a political marriage. Instead, Oburu positioned ODM as a free agent, open to partnerships based strictly on "mutual interest" rather than blind loyalty. This "wait-and-see" approach is designed to maximize the party's leverage as the political season heats up.

Negotiation as the New Strategy

Oburu, often seen as the voice of the Odinga dynasty, emphasized that ODM is currently focused on strengthening its internal structures rather than rushing into alliances. "We are not in a hurry to say 'two terms' for anyone," he stated. The party is prioritizing a revitalization of its grassroots networks, signaling readiness to field its own candidate if negotiations with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) or other formations fail to yield a favorable deal.

The veteran politician's comments come amidst internal rifts, highlighted by the recent ouster of Edwin Sifuna as Secretary General. The restructuring suggests a deliberate move to streamline the party's command chain ahead of grueling negotiations. By keeping the door ajar for both the government and alternative opposition coalitions, ODM is effectively placing a high price tag on its support.

• The Stance: ODM is open to talks but has not signed a pre-election pact with President Ruto.
• The Option: The party is prepared to "go it alone" if coalition terms are not favorable.
• The Context: Internal changes, including leadership shuffles, are preparing the party for a high-stakes bargaining process.

The implications for 2027

For President Ruto, securing ODM's backing would all but guarantee a second term, neutralizing his most formidable traditional opposition. However, Oburu's remarks clarify that this support will not be given cheaply. The "handshake" logic of cooperation is evolving into a transactional relationship where policy concessions and power-sharing will dictate alliances.

As the political dust settles in Mombasa, the message to the political class is clear: The Orange party is not a junior partner in waiting. It is a power broker in training. The road to 2027 remains wide open, and ODM intends to be the one holding the map.