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The UK's Conservative Party faces significant challenges in regaining public trust and political dominance following a substantial electoral defeat in 2024, with implications for its long-standing relationship with Kenya.
Britain's Conservative Party is currently navigating a period of profound uncertainty, grappling with its future direction after a significant defeat in the 2024 general election. The party, which governed the UK for over 60 of the last 100 years, was ousted by the Labour Party, marking a substantial shift in the British political landscape. This electoral setback has prompted introspection within the party, as it seeks to redefine its identity and strategy to remain a formidable political force.
Founded in 1831, the Conservative Party holds the distinction of being the world's oldest democratic party, having played a foundational role in shaping modern Britain. Its historical dominance saw it withstand challenges from both the Liberal and Labour parties for much of the 20th century. However, a series of events, including the economic fallout from Brexit, ethics scandals under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and a disastrous tax-cutting plan by his successor Liz Truss, significantly eroded the party's reputation for economic stability. These factors culminated in their worst-ever electoral defeat in July 2024.
Under current leader Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative Party has begun to articulate new policy proposals, including plans to withdraw Britain from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), repeal the Climate Change Act, and implement substantial spending cuts. These proposals reflect a move towards more right-wing policies, including mass deportations and government budget-slashing, in an effort to counter the rise of the hard-right Reform UK party. Despite these efforts, Badenoch faces internal challenges, with speculation about her leadership and a significant portion of party members expressing a preference for alternative leaders or even a merger with Reform UK.
The evolving political landscape in the UK, particularly the future trajectory of the Conservative Party, holds relevance for Kenya. Kenya and the UK share a deep and vibrant relationship rooted in historical ties, Commonwealth membership, and ongoing cooperation in military, economic, and cultural spheres. The UK is a significant foreign investor in Kenya, with approximately 100 British companies operating in the country, valued at over £2.0 billion (approximately KShs. 360 billion). Trade between the two nations was valued at £1.364 billion (approximately KShs. 245 billion) in 2022.
The Kenya-UK Strategic Partnership 2025-2030, renewed in July 2025, aims to deepen collaboration in areas such as trade, investment, climate action, green growth, technology, and security. This partnership, which includes a commitment to mobilise at least £200 million (approximately KShs. 35 billion) for Kenyan climate adaptation, underscores the continued importance of the bilateral relationship regardless of which party is in power in the UK. While the Conservative Party has historically championed a rules-based international system and engagement with the UN, a shift towards more isolationist policies could influence the UK's approach to international aid and global leadership on issues like climate change.
The Conservative Party's path to recovery remains uncertain. Public opinion polls in October 2025 indicate that only 15% of Britons believe the party is ready to form the next government, the lowest recorded since 1994. While a majority of Conservative members expect the party to remain an important force in British politics for at least the next decade, there is significant division regarding the longevity of Reform UK and the potential for electoral pacts or mergers. The next twelve months will be crucial, with local elections in May 2026 posing a significant pressure point and Badenoch's immunity from a leadership challenge expiring in November 2025.
The future direction of the Conservative Party will be closely watched, not only within the UK but also by international partners like Kenya. The party's ability to unify its factions, articulate a compelling vision, and regain public confidence will determine its long-term viability and influence on global affairs.
