Once a dominant force in British politics, the Conservative Party is grappling with an existential crisis after being ousted from power in the July 2024 general election. The party, which governed the United Kingdom for over 60 of the last 100 years, is now adopting new policy directions in an effort to regain public trust and political standing.

The Labour Party secured a landslide victory in the 2024 general election, winning 411 seats, while the Conservatives were reduced to 121 seats, marking their worst defeat since 1832. This outcome ended 14 years of Conservative government. Kemi Badenoch was elected as the new leader of the Conservative Party on Saturday, November 2, 2024, becoming the first Black leader of a major UK political party.

Historical and Political Context

The Conservative Party, also known as the Tories, was founded in 1834 and has historically been one of the two main political parties in the UK. Their rivalry with the Labour Party has shaped modern British politics for the last century. The party's recent defeat follows a period of significant political upheaval, including Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and various scandals that led to a decline in public confidence.

Laws/Policy and Governance

In response to their electoral setback, the Conservative Party is reportedly embracing policies reminiscent of Donald Trump's approach, including proposals for mass deportations and significant spending cuts. A key policy announced ahead of their conference in October 2025 is the intention to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) if they win the next election. This move is aimed at addressing concerns over border security and deportation challenges, though some within the party acknowledge it may not be a complete solution.

Economically, the Conservative Party's 2024 manifesto outlined a plan for £17 billion (approximately KSh 2.8 trillion) in tax cuts by 2030, primarily through reductions in National Insurance contributions. They also pledged to build 1.6 million new homes in England within the next five years and to abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers on properties up to £425,000 (approximately KSh 70 million).

Stakeholders and Testimonies

Analysts suggest that these policy shifts could influence near-term public debate and policy execution. Stakeholders are urging clarity on the timelines, costs, and safeguards associated with these new directions. Public sentiment towards the Conservative Party remains sceptical, with a majority of Britons disagreeing that the party is ready to form the next government, according to an Ipsos Political Monitor taken before the Labour and Conservative Party conferences in 2025. Only 15% of the public believe the Conservatives are ready to govern, the lowest recorded since 1994.

Evidence/Data

Risks/Implications

For Kenya, the political landscape in the UK holds significance due to long-standing bilateral relations in trade, investment, and security. The UK is a major trading partner and the largest European foreign investor in Kenya, with approximately 100 British companies operating in the country, valued at over £2.0 billion (approximately KSh 330 billion). Kenya primarily exports tea, coffee, and horticultural products to the UK, accounting for 27% of fresh produce and 56% of black tea in the UK market.

In July 2025, Kenya and the UK renewed their Strategic Partnership for 2025-2030, aiming to double bilateral trade volume by 2030 from £1.8 billion (approximately KSh 297 billion) in 2024. The UK also pledged $1.7 billion (approximately KSh 248 billion) to support Kenya's development priorities, including infrastructure, green energy, manufacturing, and digital transformation. Any significant shifts in UK policy, particularly regarding trade or foreign aid, could impact these agreements and ongoing collaborations.

Unknowns and Controversies

The Conservative Party faces internal divisions, with half of its members believing Kemi Badenoch should not lead the party into the next general election, according to a YouGov poll from October 6, 2025. There is also discussion within the party about a potential merger or electoral pact with Reform UK, a proposition supported by a majority of Conservative members but ruled out by Badenoch.

Timeline and Next Steps

The Conservative Party is currently in opposition, with the next general election due by 2029. Their efforts to redefine their policy platform and leadership will continue in the coming years as they seek to rebuild their political standing.

What to Watch

Observers will be closely watching the Conservative Party's ability to unite its factions, articulate a coherent policy agenda, and resonate with the British electorate. The implications of their policy shifts, particularly on immigration and international relations, will be of interest to Kenya and other global partners.