Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has officially announced his intention to run for a fourth presidential term in the 2026 elections. The 79-year-old leader confirmed his candidacy on Thursday, October 23, 2025, during a state visit to Jakarta, Indonesia, brushing aside concerns about his age and recent health issues. "I'm about to turn 80 years old, but you can be sure I have the same energy I had when I was 30. And I will run for a fourth term in Brazil," Lula stated at a joint press conference with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto.

This announcement reverses his previous indications during the 2022 campaign that his third term would be his last. Lula, who will celebrate his 80th birthday on October 27, 2025, previously served two consecutive terms from 2003 to 2011 and began his current term in January 2023. Brazil's constitution permits presidents to serve two consecutive terms, making Lula eligible to run again after being out of office for over a decade.

Health and Political Challenges

The decision comes despite significant health challenges. In December 2024, Lula underwent emergency surgery for a brain bleed (intracranial hemorrhage) resulting from a fall at his home two months prior. He was hospitalized for several days, including a 48-hour observation period in an intensive care unit, before being discharged. Despite this, aides report he remains energetic and often shares videos of his workouts on social media.

Lula's path to a potential fourth term is significantly cleared by the legal troubles of his chief political rival, former President Jair Bolsonaro. In September 2025, a panel of Supreme Court justices sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months in prison for attempting to orchestrate a military coup to remain in power after his 2022 election defeat. Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest, was convicted on multiple counts, including attempting to violently abolish the democratic rule of law. His lawyers have stated they will appeal the verdict.

The 2022 election was the closest in Brazil's recent history, with Lula securing 50.9% of the vote against Bolsonaro's 49.1% in a tense run-off. The first round saw Lula take 48.4% to Bolsonaro's 43.2%.

Implications for Kenya-Brazil Relations

For Kenya, Lula's continued political presence signifies stability in a growing partnership. Diplomatic relations were established in 1963, with Brazil opening an embassy in Nairobi in 1967 and Kenya establishing one in Brasília in 2006. President Lula made the first-ever official visit by a Brazilian head of state to Kenya in July 2010, a trip that resulted in numerous bilateral agreements in sectors like energy, education, trade promotion, and technical cooperation.

Trade between the two nations, while modest, shows potential for growth. In 2023, Kenyan imports from Brazil totaled approximately US$225.61 million, while exports to Brazil were about US$1.11 million. A significant development occurred in late 2023 when Kenya's market was opened to Brazilian rice, a move projected to increase Brazil's exports by over US$2 million annually. Brazil also extended an $80 million credit line to Kenya to finance agricultural equipment under its 'More Food International Program'. In May 2025, Kenya's Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, Musalia Mudavadi, held an official visit to Brazil to discuss deepening these ties.

Global South and Geopolitical Context

Lula's leadership has positioned Brazil as a prominent voice for the Global South, advocating for reform in international institutions and greater cooperation among developing nations. This aligns with Kenya's foreign policy objectives. Both nations are members of the Group of 77. President William Ruto and President Lula met in February 2024 on the sidelines of the African Union Summit.

The political situation in Brazil has also drawn international attention, particularly from the United States. The Trump administration has vocally criticized the prosecution of Bolsonaro, a political ally, labeling it a "witch hunt." In response to the conviction, the U.S. imposed an additional 40% tariff on Brazilian goods in August 2025, bringing the total tariff to 50%. This has created trade tensions and prompted discussions between the two governments to find a resolution. A potential meeting between President Lula and U.S. President Donald Trump is anticipated at the upcoming ASEAN summit in Malaysia.

As the 2026 election approaches, Lula's decision to run again sets the stage for a campaign that will be closely watched both within Brazil and by its international partners, including Kenya, who see the South American giant as a crucial ally in navigating a complex global landscape.