For Kenyan shoppers navigating the festive rush in Nairobi’s supermarkets this week, the confectionery aisle has become a site of sticker shock. A standard bar of dairy milk chocolate, once a casual addition to the trolley, now commands a price tag that forces a second thought. The irony? The raw ingredient behind it—cocoa—is cheaper today than it has been in months.

It is a paradox that defies basic economic logic: if the cost of the raw material crashes, shouldn’t the finished product follow suit? Not in the complex, slow-moving world of global commodities.

While cocoa futures have indeed tumbled from the dizzying heights of early 2025, the chocolate bars stocking shelves this December were priced based on the panic of 2024. Consumers are effectively paying for a crisis that, on paper, is already ending.

The Ghost of Prices Past

To understand the current price tag, one must look back at the chaotic market of 2024. Driven by catastrophic harvests in West Africa, cocoa prices shattered historical records, peaking at nearly $12,900 (approx. KES 1.67 million) per tonne in December 2024.

Major chocolate manufacturers do not buy beans on the spot market; they hedge their bets, purchasing contracts 12 to 18 months in advance to secure supply. This means the chocolate being unwrapped in Nairobi today was manufactured using beans bought at those record-breaking peaks.

“The industry is working through a massive lag,” notes a commodities analyst based in Nairobi. “The cheap cocoa we are seeing in the markets today—trading around $6,100 (approx. KES 790,000) per tonne—won’t filter through to the consumer until late 2026. Right now, we are still paying the bill for last year’s deficit.”

West Africa’s Perfect Storm

The root of the volatility lies in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two nations responsible for over 60% of the world’s cocoa supply. For nearly two years, these producers have faced a relentless barrage of challenges:

• Climate Chaos: Erratic weather patterns, including the aftermath of El Niño, disrupted the delicate flowering cycles of cocoa trees.
• Disease Outbreaks: The spread of 'swollen shoot' virus forced farmers to uproot millions of infected trees, reducing long-term capacity.
• Galamsey: In Ghana, illegal gold mining has encroached on fertile farmland, poisoning water sources and displacing cocoa plantations.

While 2025 has seen improved weather and a partial recovery in yields, the structural damage to the supply chain remains deep. The market has softened, but it has not returned to the 'normal' historical average of $2,500 (approx. KES 325,000) per tonne.

The Kenyan Impact: Shrinkflation and Substitutes

For the Kenyan consumer, the impact is two-fold: higher prices and smaller products. Local retailers have noted a trend known as 'shrinkflation,' where manufacturers subtly reduce the weight of a chocolate bar while maintaining or increasing its price to avoid scaring off customers.

Furthermore, the strength of the Kenya Shilling plays a critical role. With chocolate being a largely imported luxury—or made from imported raw materials—any fluctuation in the exchange rate amplifies global costs. Even with a stable shilling, the global base price of the ingredients makes high costs unavoidable.

“We are seeing shoppers pivot to cheaper confectionery or local brands that use less cocoa butter,” says a procurement manager at a leading Nairobi retail chain. “Pure chocolate is becoming a premium luxury item again, rather than an everyday treat.”

As the holiday season peaks, the message for chocolate lovers is one of patience. The market correction is coming, but like a shipment of beans from West Africa, it will take time to arrive. Until then, that festive bar of chocolate remains a bittersweet luxury.