The quiet, forested slopes of Mrima Hill in Kwale County have become the latest frontline in a high-stakes global chess game. A new US-backed consortium has formally proposed a "value chain" approach to extract and process the hill’s rare earth deposits—a treasure trove valued at over $62 billion (approx. KES 8 trillion).

This development marks a significant escalation in the race for critical minerals, pitting Western interests directly against Chinese dominance in the sector. Unlike previous attempts that focused on raw extraction, the new proposal reportedly emphasizes domestic processing—a key demand of the Kenyan government to ensure the economic benefits remain within its borders.

The Geopolitical Chessboard

For years, Mrima Hill has been known to sit atop one of the world’s top five deposits of niobium and rare earth elements—minerals essential for everything from electric vehicle batteries to advanced fighter jets. Until now, the site has been a graveyard of ambition, plagued by legal battles and environmental concerns.

"The entry of a US-backed entity changes the calculus entirely," notes a source within the Ministry of Mining who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks. "This isn't just about mining anymore; it is about the Minerals Security Partnership and breaking the monopoly on supply chains."

The move comes months after high-profile visits by American officials to the region, signaling Washington’s intent to secure African resources. However, the consortium—whose specific composition remains under tight wraps—enters a crowded field. Australian firms RareX and Iluka Resources have previously signaled interest, and Chinese entities have long eyed the deposit, only to be rebuffed by wary local communities.

The Sh8 Trillion Question

The economic stakes are staggering. Geological data suggests Mrima Hill holds approximately:

• 40 million tonnes of rare earth oxides.
• 680 million kilograms of niobium.
• Total estimated value: $62.4 billion (KES 8.1 trillion).

To put this in perspective, the potential value of the minerals buried in this single hill is roughly double Kenya’s entire current national debt. For the residents of Kwale, where poverty rates remain stubbornly high, these figures represent a dizzying paradox of potential wealth and immediate peril.

Ghosts of the Past

Any new investor at Mrima Hill must navigate the spectre of Cortec Mining Kenya. In 2013, the government revoked Cortec’s license, sparking a decade-long legal war that ended in international arbitration courts ruling in Kenya’s favor. The lesson was clear: speculative license-holding without community consent or environmental compliance is a dead end.

"We have seen big promises before," says Juma Koja, a community elder and forest guard. "People come in big cars, talk about billions, and leave us with nothing but division. This hill is a Kaya—a sacred forest. You cannot just dig it up without consequences."

Radiation and Realism

Beyond the sacred nature of the site, there is a silent, invisible danger: radiation. Mrima Hill has naturally high background radiation levels due to the presence of thorium. Environmental experts have long warned that uncontrolled extraction could unleash a health crisis for the surrounding villages.

The new consortium’s "value chain" proposal allegedly includes advanced mitigation technologies and a commitment to rehabilitate the ecosystem. However, details on how they plan to balance industrial processing with the preservation of the Kaya forest remain scarce.

As the government reviews this fresh proposal, the residents of Kwale are left waiting. Will this be the deal that finally transforms their county’s fortune, or another chapter in the long history of Africa’s resource curse?

"The minerals are not going anywhere," Koja adds, looking up at the dense canopy of the hill. "The question is whether we will survive the digging."