The ghosts of fallen giants like Nakumatt haunt Kenya's corporate landscape, a stark reminder that success today is no guarantee of survival tomorrow. As businesses navigate a turbulent 2025, a critical question emerges: Are they merely reacting to crises, or are they actively preparing for a future rife with uncertainty?

The answer, for many, is a dangerous gamble on the status quo. While C-suite optimism about the economy shows some improvement, a storm of complex risks is gathering. This isn't just about managing day-to-day operations; it's about developing the foresight to see around the corner, a skill that can mean the difference between thriving and collapsing.

A New Landscape of Threats

The nature of business risk in Kenya has fundamentally shifted. While economic volatility, inflation, and high taxation remain significant concerns for CEOs, they have been dramatically overtaken by new anxieties. According to the 2025 World Security Report by G4S, political instability and civil unrest are now the top hazards facing local companies.

The report notes a sharp rise in corporate anxiety following recent anti-government protests, with 45% of Kenyan security chiefs ranking political instability as their primary concern. This has forced a pivot in corporate strategy, with a staggering 79% of businesses planning to increase their physical security budgets. Key threats now confronting Kenyan boardrooms include:

• Political & Civil Unrest: Over a fifth of companies (21%) expect to be directly impacted by demonstrations in the coming year, the highest rate in sub-Saharan Africa.
• Cyber Risks: Alongside inflation and macroeconomic volatility, cyber threats are a top concern for CEOs, as fraudsters use increasingly sophisticated methods like phishing and ransomware to target local firms.
• Macroeconomic Volatility: Unpredictable currency fluctuations and high interest rates continue to create a risky business environment, impacting everything from import costs to investment planning.
• Regulatory Shifts: A significant number of CEOs fear their business models may not be viable in the next decade due to rapid changes in the regulatory environment.

The High Cost of Hindsight

The collapse of retail chains like Nakumatt serves as a powerful case study in the failure of foresight. The company's demise was attributed not just to competition, but to deep-seated issues of poor corporate governance, a lack of financial discipline, and an inability to adapt. Directors took interest-free loans exceeding KES 1 billion, a clear sign of mismanagement that auditors and financial advisors seemingly missed for years. The final bill was staggering, with creditors, including many small and medium-sized enterprises, owed an estimated $380 million (approx. KES 49.4 billion).

This history underscores a dangerous pattern of reactive, rather than proactive, management. The Kenya Insolvency Act of 2015 was intended to provide pathways for business rescue, but its implementation has often favored liquidation over recovery, a trend that stifles economic resilience.

From Reaction to Readiness

Escaping this cycle requires a deliberate shift towards strategic foresight—a practice that enables organizations to anticipate and adapt to change before it becomes a crisis. This is more than just risk management; it involves embedding a future-focused mindset into the corporate culture. According to a recent PwC survey, 65% of Kenyan CEOs are confident in their company's viability over the next decade, but this confidence must be backed by action.

Practical steps include investing in scenario planning, using data analytics to monitor emerging trends, and building resilient supply chains. As Peter Ngahu, Regional Senior Partner at PwC Eastern Africa, noted, many businesses are constrained by leadership mindsets that lead to inertia. Overcoming this requires boards to ask tough questions about long-term threats, from climate change to geopolitical shifts.

Ultimately, the future of Kenyan enterprise will be defined not by those who weather the storm, but by those who build stronger ships because they saw the storm coming. The hints of the direction the world is taking are there for those willing to look. Ignoring them is a luxury Kenya can no longer afford.