Imagine making $500,000 because the US President ordered an airstrike on Caracas. This isn’t the plot of a dystopian novel; it is the reality of modern prediction markets, where traders are now placing bets on everything from World War III to the Second Coming of Jesus.

A new investigation by The Guardian’s "Today in Focus" podcast has peeled back the layers of this dizzying industry. As Saahil Desai of The Atlantic explains, platforms that once hosted harmless wagers on the Super Bowl have morphed into geopolitical casinos. In one chilling example, a trader seemingly predicted a surprise attack on Venezuela, cashing in on chaos before the rest of the world even saw the breaking news.

The Oracle or the Manipulator?

These markets are sold as "forecasting tools," leveraging the wisdom of the crowd to predict the future. But the line between prediction and causation is blurring.

"Let’s say you are a donor to a major Senate candidate," Desai posits. "You could put millions... into the prediction market... and swing the odds." This allows wealthy actors to manufacture a narrative of inevitability, shaping media coverage and voter perception in real-time. It is democracy hacked by the highest bidder.

The Trump Factor

The boom is inextricably linked to the volatility of the Trump era.

• The Deregulation: Biden-era constraints have eroded, allowing these apps to flourish.
• The Media Complicity: Major news outlets are now citing betting odds alongside polling data, legitimizing the gamble.
• The Ethics: Is it moral to profit from a genocide or a natural disaster?

As prediction markets go mainstream, we are entering an era where global instability is not just a tragedy to be averted, but a market inefficiency to be exploited. The question is no longer just "what will happen next?" but "who is paying to make it happen?"