The ghost of the late Raila Odinga hangs heavy over Orange House, where Secretary General Edwin Sifuna is fighting a high-stakes war for the soul of Kenya’s most resilient political machine.

With the 2027 General Election looming, the battle lines are drawn not just over leadership, but identity: will the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) remain a stabilizing partner in President William Ruto’s administration, or reclaim its DNA as the people’s watchdog?

Sifuna, the firebrand Nairobi Senator, finds himself in the crosshairs of a powerful faction of senior party leaders. Their accusation is blunt: the Secretary General is sabotaging the "broad-based arrangement" signed on March 7—a pact they claim is the only thing holding the country’s fragile political peace together.

The Ideological Schism

The death of the party’s founding father has ripped the bandage off a wound that had been festering for months. Without the towering figure of Raila to enforce discipline, two distinct camps have emerged regarding the party's relationship with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

On one side stands the old guard, led by Party Leader Oburu Oginga. They argue that the cooperation framework was not merely a stop-gap, but Raila’s final blueprint for national stability. To them, rocking the boat now is not just political suicide; it is a betrayal of the founder's wishes.

On the other side, Sifuna has rallied a younger, more radical cohort, including Siaya Governor James Orengo and Saboti MP Caleb Amisi. Their stance is clear: cooperation was tactical, not permanent.

• The Loyalist Argument: Oburu’s camp insists that the March 7 deal secures resources and stability, vital for the economy.
• The Sifuna Doctrine: The Secretary General argues that ODM must decouple from the state by 2026 to field a credible presidential candidate in 2027.

A Gamble for 2027

Sifuna has not minced his words, repeatedly asserting that President William Ruto must be defeated in the next polls. This position has rattled those within ODM who have grown comfortable with the government accommodation. For the average Kenyan voter, this internal wrestling match is more than political theater; it determines whether there will be a viable opposition to check government excesses—from tax hikes to the cost of living—heading into the next election cycle.

"We cannot be in government and check it at the same time forever," a source close to Sifuna noted, emphasizing that the party risks alienating its core support base if it is perceived as an appendage of the UDA.

As the factions prepare for what promises to be a bruised 2026 party election, the question remains: Can Sifuna rewrite the rules without being purged by the very machinery he seeks to lead?

Governor Orengo summed up the stakes, warning that the party’s survival depends on its ability to distinguish itself from the ruling elite. As the dust settles on the post-Raila era, Sifuna is betting his career that the ODM base is tired of handshakes and hungry for a fight.