The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) retains its crown as the most popular party in Western Kenya, but the gap is closing fast as the ruling UDA party makes significant inroads, according to the latest Infotrak poll.

The data reveals a shifting landscape in a region that has been ODM reliable vote basket for nearly two decades. UDA’s aggressive recruitment and development promises are beginning to bear fruit, slowly chipping away at the orange dominance.

The Numbers

While ODM still commands a plurality, UDA’s support has jumped by double digits compared to 2022. This surge is attributed to the presence of key government figures like Moses Wetang’ula and Musalia Mudavadi pushing the "government delivery" narrative.

• ODM Hold: Still dominant in Busia and Kakamega, but with reduced margins.
• UDA Growth: Strong gains in Bungoma and parts of Vihiga, leveraging state projects like the sugar sector revival.
• The Swing Vote: A growing number of voters identified as "undecided" or supporting emerging outfits like Natembeya’s movement, indicating fatigue with the two main horses.

Warning Signs

For ODM, the poll is a warning light on the dashboard. The "Mulembe Nation" is no longer a guaranteed bloc; it is a competitive market. For Ruto, it is proof that his strategy of relentless engagement is working.