Joyce's Departure and Future Political Path

Former Australian Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce confirmed on Saturday, October 18, 2025, his intention to leave the Nationals party and not contest his New England seat in the next federal election. In a statement reportedly sent to local party members, Joyce indicated he would complete his current parliamentary term, presumably as an independent, and is now “free to consider all options” for his political future.

This announcement intensifies earlier reports from Friday, October 17, 2025, suggesting Joyce was in advanced discussions to defect to Pauline Hanson's One Nation party. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, who was in Joyce's electorate on Saturday, stated that Joyce would be welcome in her party, believing he is “more aligned with One Nation than what he was with the National party.”

Historical Context and Policy Disagreements

Barnaby Joyce has had a prominent and at times controversial career in Australian politics. He served as the leader of the National Party twice, from 2016 to 2018 and again from 2021 to 2022, holding the position of Deputy Prime Minister during both tenures.

His relationship with the Nationals' leadership has reportedly deteriorated since the May 2025 federal election, which saw him relegated to the backbench. A key point of contention has been the Nationals' stance on net-zero emissions targets by 2050, a policy Joyce has openly criticised, arguing it negatively impacts his electorate and regional communities.

Joyce's outspoken nature and willingness to cross the floor, particularly during his time as a Senator for Queensland from 2005 to 2013, earned him a reputation as an independent thinker. His current grievances also include being instructed not to campaign outside his electorate during the last federal election and feeling sidelined within the party room.

Stakeholder Reactions and Implications

Pauline Hanson has actively encouraged Joyce to join One Nation, stating, “I'll open doors for you. Come across to One Nation. I think he's got a lot to offer in politics.” This potential defection would significantly boost One Nation's profile, particularly in regional New South Wales.

Within the Nationals, the news has been met with a mix of sadness and surprise. Nationals Senator and Shadow Minister Bridget McKenzie acknowledged it as “a sad day” but expressed belief that Joyce “still has much to contribute.” Former Nationals leader Michael McCormack also voiced his hope that Joyce would not join One Nation.

The move follows the recent defection of Steve Coxhead, a senior NSW Nationals official and Tamworth branch chairman in Joyce's electorate, who joined One Nation last week, citing concerns that the Nationals no longer represent regional voters.

What to Watch Next

The immediate focus will be on whether Barnaby Joyce formally announces a move to One Nation or chooses to sit as an independent for the remainder of his term. His decision will have implications for the balance of power within the Australian Parliament and the dynamics of the Coalition. The next federal election will also reveal the extent of any shift in voter sentiment in regional areas, particularly in New England, following Joyce's departure from the Nationals.

Evidence/Data Box

• Barnaby Joyce's Political Career: Served as Senator for Queensland (2005-2013), Member for New England (2013-present).
• Leadership of Nationals: Twice served as leader (2016-2018, 2021-2022) and Deputy Prime Minister.
• Date of Departure Announcement: Saturday, October 18, 2025.
• Key Policy Disagreement: Nationals' net-zero emissions target by 2050.