‘Very Dangerous Thunderstorms’ Forecast

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has issued a severe weather warning for Saturday, 8th November 2025 (EAT), forecasting “very dangerous thunderstorms” across the eastern part of New South Wales (NSW). The weather agency predicts destructive winds exceeding 125km/h, large hail greater than 2cm in diameter, and heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding. BoM meteorologist Christie Johnson described the expected conditions as hazardous, capable of bringing down trees and power lines, causing damage to property, and leading to significant transport delays.

The areas at highest risk include the Hunter, mid-north coast, and northern tablelands. The major metropolitan area of Sydney is also expected to face severe storms, particularly from late morning through the early afternoon. Authorities have placed much of central and eastern NSW on high fire alert ahead of the storms due to warm temperatures.

Kenyan Diaspora in Affected Region

The severe weather warnings cover a region with a notable Kenyan population. According to the 2021 Australian Census, New South Wales is home to 18.8% of Australia's 22,348 Kenya-born residents, translating to over 4,200 people. A 2023 report noted 4,207 individuals born in Kenya residing in NSW. The Kenyan High Commission in Canberra, the diplomatic mission for Kenya in Australia, has not issued a specific public advisory regarding the storms, but provides emergency contact numbers for consular services on its website. The NSW State Emergency Service (SES) has advised all residents in the path of the storms to secure loose outdoor items, move vehicles under cover, and stay indoors away from windows.

Global Climate Patterns Link Australia and East Africa

This extreme weather event in Australia occurs within a broader context of global climate patterns that also heavily influence East Africa. Scientists point to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as a key climate driver affecting both continents. A positive IOD phase, characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and cooler temperatures in the east, typically brings wetter conditions to East Africa while causing drier conditions in Australia. Conversely, a strong negative IOD, as recently recorded, can lead to warmer waters near Australia, fueling wetter and stormier conditions in the country's south and east.

The Kenya Meteorological Department has previously linked prolonged heavy rains and subsequent flooding in the highlands to warming in the Indian Ocean. These interconnected climate phenomena underscore the shared vulnerability to weather extremes driven by climate change. Just this month, Kenya has experienced devastating landslides and floods in Elgeyo Marakwet County, killing at least 32 people and displacing thousands, events that scientists attribute to more intense and frequent extreme weather.

Official Safety Advice

The NSW SES is the lead agency for storms and floods in the state. They have urged the public to monitor official warnings through the Bureau of Meteorology and the Hazards Near Me mobile application. Key safety recommendations include:

• Staying indoors and away from windows during the storm.
• Avoiding travel unless absolutely essential. If driving, do not enter floodwaters.
• Securing or putting away items in yards and on balconies that could become airborne in strong winds.
• Keeping clear of fallen power lines, creeks, and storm drains.

For emergency assistance in a flood or storm, the NSW SES can be reached at 132 500. For life-threatening emergencies, the number is Triple Zero (000).