CANBERRA - The leadership of Australia's opposition leader, Sussan Ley, is facing significant instability following public criticism from within her own Liberal Party, driven by dismal polling and deep divisions over climate change policy. On Friday, 7 November 2025, Senator Sarah Henderson stated that Ley was "losing support" among colleagues, a claim that has amplified speculation about a potential leadership challenge.

The turmoil comes as the Liberal-National Coalition grapples with its stance on Australia's commitment to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Nationals, the junior coalition partner, voted on Sunday, 2 November 2025, to abandon the target, increasing pressure on the Liberals to follow suit. This has created a significant rift within the Liberal party, with moderate members warning that abandoning the target could alienate urban voters, while conservatives, including potential leadership rival Angus Taylor, advocate for dropping the commitment.

Recent polling has exacerbated the pressure on Ley. A Newspoll published in early November 2025 showed the Coalition's primary vote had fallen to a record low of 24 percent. Ley's personal net approval rating plummeted to minus 33, worse than her predecessor at the time of the last election defeat.

In response to Senator Henderson's comments, Ley downplayed the leadership speculation, stating her team was "absolutely united" in holding the current Labor government to account and that she would not comment on commentary. Angus Taylor, who narrowly lost to Ley in the last leadership contest in May 2025, also dismissed rumours of a challenge, affirming his support for Ley to lead the party to the next election. Other MPs have publicly backed Ley, suggesting her position is safe for the immediate future.

Global Context and Kenyan Relevance

While the immediate political drama is unfolding in Australia, the situation highlights a broader challenge faced by conservative political parties globally: how to formulate credible climate and energy policies that appeal to a broad electorate without fracturing their traditional support base. The Australian government, under the current Labor administration, has legislated a target to reach net-zero by 2050 and submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations in September 2025. The opposition's internal conflict over this cornerstone of climate policy could have implications for Australia's international standing on climate action.

For Kenya and the East Africa region, the developments in Australian politics are of indirect but notable significance. Australia is a key partner for Kenya, with relations spanning six decades, focusing on trade, agriculture, mining, and climate action. In October 2025, Kenyan Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi met with an Australian Assistant Minister, reaffirming commitments to strengthen cooperation, with Kenya expressing a desire to elevate the relationship to an Economic Partnership Agreement. Australia's High Commission in Nairobi also serves as a diplomatic hub for its relations with Burundi, Rwanda, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda, as well as the East African Community (EAC).

Any significant shift in Australia's climate policy, such as abandoning the net-zero target, could affect its diplomatic and economic relationships, particularly with nations vulnerable to climate change. It could also influence its role in international forums where climate change is a central topic. As a major player in the Commonwealth, of which Kenya is also a member, Australia's policy direction on this critical global issue is watched closely. Furthermore, Australian companies have significant and growing investments in East Africa's mining sector, an industry intrinsically linked to energy and environmental policy.

The Liberal Party is expected to hold a series of meetings in the coming week to finalize its position on the net-zero target, a decision that will be critical not only for Sussan Ley's leadership but also for the future direction of the Coalition and Australia's engagement on the global stage.