Political Turmoil Down Under

The leader of Australia's main opposition Liberal Party, Sussan Ley, is battling to secure her position amidst escalating internal dissent following a contentious decision to abandon the party's commitment to a net-zero emissions target by 2050. [6, 7] The move, confirmed on Monday, 17 November 2025, has exposed deep ideological fractures within the centre-right party and triggered widespread speculation of an imminent leadership challenge. [10, 25]

In a series of interviews on Monday, Ms. Ley, the first woman to lead the Liberal Party, pushed back against the speculation, suggesting a gendered element to the criticism she has faced. [13] "I’ve been underestimated a lot of my life," she told radio station 2GB, recalling her early career as a pilot. "I remember when a lot of blokes told me I couldn’t fly an aeroplane and did a lot to keep me out of the front seat."

Factional Divides and Potential Challengers

Australia's Liberal Party, which governs in a coalition with the National Party when in power, is broadly divided between a moderate, more socially progressive wing and a conservative, or 'National Right', faction. [8, 12, 21] Ms. Ley, a member of the moderate faction, secured the leadership in May 2025 after a narrow victory over conservative rival Angus Taylor. [13, 16] That contest itself highlighted the party's internal struggles following a significant election defeat. [19]

The current instability is being fuelled by the party's conservative wing. [22] Potential challengers to Ms. Ley are believed to include Mr. Taylor, the Shadow Treasurer, and Andrew Hastie, a prominent conservative from Western Australia. [17, 20, 23] While senior moderates, including Senators Anne Ruston and Maria Kovacic, issued a public statement on Monday to quell rumours and reaffirm their support for Ms. Ley, many party insiders reportedly believe a leadership contest is now inevitable, though perhaps not immediate. [9, 25]

The Global Climate Context

The policy reversal at the heart of the turmoil carries significant international weight. By formally dropping the net-zero by 2050 target, the opposition Coalition has signalled a major departure from the climate consensus embraced by many developed nations. [6, 14] While Ms. Ley has stated a future Coalition government would not withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change, the decision to scrap legislated national targets, including a 43% emissions reduction by 2030, has been met with confusion and criticism. [2, 6, 7]

Australia is a member of the G20, a group of nations that collectively account for over 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. [26] As one of the world's highest per-capita emitters with an economy heavily reliant on fossil fuel exports, its domestic energy policies have a tangible impact on global efforts to combat climate change. [3] A retreat from established targets by a major political party in a G20 country could undermine international climate negotiations and create uncertainty for investors in renewable energy. [27, 30] For nations in East Africa, which are disproportionately affected by climate change, policy shifts in major economies are of critical importance, particularly concerning the availability of climate finance and the global commitment to limiting temperature rises. [27, 28, 29]

An Uncertain Future

The decision to abandon the climate target was reportedly made to appease the Liberal Party's conservative faction and its Coalition partner, the Nationals, who have long been critical of the policy. [7, 11] However, it has placed Ms. Ley in a precarious position, attempting to unite a deeply divided party while facing accusations of weakening Australia's commitment to global climate action. [9, 11]

While publicly dismissing the leadership chatter, Ms. Ley faces the difficult task of navigating the party's ideological rift. [18] The coming weeks will be a critical test of her leadership and will determine the future direction of one of Australia's two major political forces. The outcome will not only shape Australian domestic politics but will also send a signal to the world about the nation's long-term stance on the critical issue of climate change.