Political Realignment in Key Commonwealth Nation

CANBERRA – In a move sending tremors through Australian politics, former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce announced his resignation from the National Party on Thursday, 27 November 2025, ending a 30-year affiliation with the country's dominant rural political force. Speaking before the House of Representatives, Joyce stated he was seeking “a better position” than the backbenches, citing a breakdown in his relationship with the party's current leadership under David Littleproud.

Joyce is now "strongly considering" joining the populist, right-wing One Nation party, a move that would represent a significant ideological shift and could destabilise the country's conservative political landscape. The announcement confirmed weeks of speculation following Joyce's declaration in October 2025 that his relationship with the Nationals' leadership had "irreparably broken down" and that he would not recontest his parliamentary seat of New England for the party.

A Career of Controversy and Influence

Barnaby Joyce, 58, has been a towering and often polarising figure in Australian politics for over two decades. First elected to the Senate in 2004, he built a reputation as a political maverick, famously "crossing the floor" to vote against his own government on numerous occasions. He served two separate stints as leader of the National Party and, by extension, as Deputy Prime Minister of Australia between 2016 and 2022.

His career has been marked by significant policy influence, particularly in portfolios like Agriculture and Infrastructure, but also by numerous controversies. In 2017, he was briefly disqualified from parliament by the High Court for holding dual New Zealand citizenship, a status inherited from his father. He resigned from his leadership position in February 2018 amid intense public scrutiny over an extramarital affair with a former staffer, with whom he now has children. Despite these setbacks, he regained the party leadership in June 2021 before being ousted by David Littleproud after the Coalition's election loss in May 2022.

The Lure of One Nation's Populism

Joyce's potential defection to One Nation is laden with significance. Founded in 1997 by its current leader Pauline Hanson, One Nation is an Australian nationalist, right-wing populist party. It has historically campaigned on platforms of economic protectionism, stricter immigration controls, and socially conservative policies. The party first gained notoriety in the late 1990s with anti-immigration rhetoric that critics condemned as racist.

Today, its policies include calls for a royal commission into climate science, abolishing the national renewable energy target, withdrawing from international climate agreements, and restricting foreign ownership of land. For Joyce, a vocal critic of the Coalition's net-zero emissions by 2050 target, One Nation's climate stance appears to be a major point of alignment. He has stated that the Nationals' continued support for the policy makes his position within the party "untenable."

Implications for Australian and Global Politics

While this is an internal Australian political matter with no direct, immediate impact on Kenya, the situation warrants observation. Australia is a key middle power, a fellow Commonwealth nation, and a significant trading partner for Kenya and the East Africa region. In 2024, two-way trade between Kenya and Australia surpassed AUD$1 billion. The two countries cooperate on multiple fronts, including security, agriculture, and climate action.

Joyce's departure from a mainstream conservative party to a more extreme populist one reflects a broader trend seen in other Western democracies. Such realignments can lead to political instability and policy uncertainty. The National Party has traditionally governed in a formal alliance with the larger, city-focused Liberal Party, known as the Coalition. Although this federal coalition officially dissolved after the 2025 election, the two parties remain the primary conservative forces. A weakened and fractured National Party could further diminish the conservative bloc's ability to form a stable government in the future, potentially impacting Australia's long-term foreign and trade policy consistency.

Nationals leader David Littleproud has publicly urged Joyce to remain with the party, acknowledging the significant contribution he has made. Former leader Michael McCormack also revealed he spent an hour trying to convince Joyce to stay, warning that a move to One Nation would "trash" his legacy. However, the deep divisions over climate policy and leadership appear to have made the split unavoidable, signalling a volatile period ahead for Australian conservative politics.