NAIROBI, KENYA – Saboti Member of Parliament Caleb Amisi has issued a direct ultimatum to the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), demanding the party sever its ties with President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration by March 9, 2026, or risk mass defections. The declaration, made on Friday, November 21, 2025, at a fundraiser in Borabu Constituency, intensifies the widening rift within Kenya’s largest opposition party over its strategic direction following the death of its long-time leader, Raila Odinga.

“Raila is not the first time he joins the government, he joins governments and leaves a year before the election, William Ruto can not be different," Amisi stated, according to reports from People Daily and Tuko.co.ke on November 21, 2025. "Those of us who spoke with Raila, he told us that the ninth of March 2026 was the final day to align with William Samoei Ruto.”

Amisi warned ODM members to “prepare for a state of emergency in the party,” arguing that remaining in the “broad-based government” until 2027 would be a betrayal of supporters grappling with economic hardship and a dilution of the party's identity. His comments reflect a growing impatience among a faction of younger, vocal ODM leaders who are pushing for the party to abandon its current cooperative stance and resume its traditional role as a robust opposition force.

A Party Divided

Amisi's ultimatum lays bare the fundamental ideological struggle within ODM. Since the passing of Raila Odinga, the party has navigated a complex transition, with one camp advocating for continued engagement with the government and another demanding a clean break. The current party leadership, including the new party leader Dr. Oburu Oginga and Chairperson Gladys Wanga, has publicly committed to upholding the cooperation agreement until the 2027 general election, framing it as a continuation of Odinga's legacy of national unity.

This official position is starkly at odds with the sentiment expressed by Amisi and his allies, including ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna. Speaking at the same event in Borabu, Sifuna criticized party members who he claimed were covertly aligning with President Ruto's strategies. “Hao ndugu zetu wako ODM ambao wanasema wanasupport hio kitu inaitwa broad-based, ni sawa support lakini msifikirie nyinyi ni wajanja sana (Those of our brothers in ODM who say they support that thing called broad-based, it's okay to support but don't think you are very clever),” Sifuna was quoted as saying on November 21, 2025.

This internal friction has been escalating for months. Amisi has previously threatened to quit the party if the cooperation pact extends beyond his March 2026 deadline, arguing the arrangement has caused confusion among the party's grassroots supporters. In July 2025, he described the party as being in a state of 'Disco Matanga'—metaphorically dancing on its own grave—due to the internal confusion.

The Nature of the Pact

The “broad-based government” is not a formal coalition. President William Ruto has clarified on multiple occasions that the arrangement is a framework for national unity and development, not a power-sharing deal. Speaking on March 8, 2025, President Ruto stated the agreement with the then-ODM leader Raila Odinga was intended to “foster unity of purpose to drive the country's social, economic and political transformation” and was not about the 2027 elections.

The pact saw several high-profile ODM members appointed to cabinet positions, a move that some analysts, like Professor Gitile Naituli, warned could alienate the party's base and damage its credibility as an opposition voice. The ongoing debate has been further fueled by figures like EALA MP Winnie Odinga, who has called for a National Delegates Convention to allow party members to decide on the future of the relationship with Kenya Kwanza.

Implications for 2027

Amisi's deadline sets a clear timeline for a potential political schism. By invoking the late Raila Odinga's alleged timeline, he is directly challenging the current leadership's interpretation of Odinga's legacy. The ultimatum forces a difficult choice upon the party: either call the bluff of a vocal and influential faction, risking a split, or pivot away from the government, potentially losing its seat at the executive table.

The decision will have significant ramifications for the 2027 general election. A fractured ODM would weaken the opposition's ability to mount a unified challenge against President Ruto. Conversely, an early exit from the cooperation pact could allow ODM to consolidate its opposition credentials and begin campaigning in earnest. As of Saturday, November 22, 2025, neither the official ODM leadership nor the Kenya Kwanza administration had issued a formal response to Amisi's latest remarks. The silence from the top political echelons underscores the delicate calculations being made as this high-stakes political drama unfolds.