Military Takes Control Amidst Political Turmoil

Madagascar's political landscape has been dramatically reshaped following a military takeover by the elite Capsat army unit on Tuesday, October 14, 2025. This move came moments after the parliament voted to impeach President Andry Rajoelina, who reportedly fled the country as street protests intensified. Colonel Michael Randrianirina, commander of the Capsat unit, has been confirmed as president by the High Constitutional Court and is scheduled to be sworn in on Friday, October 17, 2025, in a solemn hearing.

The African Union (AU) responded by immediately suspending Madagascar from all its institutions on Wednesday, October 15, 2025. This decision, confirmed by an AU spokesperson to Reuters, carries significant political weight and could further isolate the new leadership internationally. Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, Chairperson of the AU Commission, emphasised that the organisation's stance reflects its opposition to unconstitutional power grabs, stating, “The rule of law must prevail over the rule of force.”

A Nation on the Brink: Roots of the Crisis

Colonel Randrianirina defended the military's actions, asserting, “It wasn't a coup, it was a case of taking responsibility because the country was on the brink of collapse.” He has pledged a transition to civilian leadership within two years, including the restructuring of major institutions and the holding of elections in 18 to 24 months. A committee comprising officers from the army, gendarmerie, and police will oversee this transition.

The recent upheaval in Madagascar follows weeks of youth-led protests, primarily by 'Gen Z Madagascar,' which began on September 25, 2025. These demonstrations were initially sparked by severe shortages of water and electricity, coupled with rising living costs and allegations of corruption. The protests quickly escalated into widespread calls for President Rajoelina's resignation.

Historical Context of Instability

Madagascar, a former French colony, has a turbulent history marked by numerous military-backed coups and political crises since gaining independence in 1960. Notably, President Andry Rajoelina himself first came to power in a 2009 military-backed coup, which was also condemned by the international community and led to Madagascar's suspension from the African Union and the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

Colonel Randrianirina has been a vocal critic of Rajoelina's administration and was reportedly imprisoned in 2023 for several months on suspicion of plotting a coup. His elite Capsat unit played a crucial role in Rajoelina's ascent to power in 2009 but broke ranks with him in the lead-up to the current crisis, urging soldiers not to fire on protesters.

Governance and Policy Under New Leadership

The military leadership has announced the suspension of the constitution adopted on December 11, 2010, and the establishment of new structures for national renovation. Five institutions, including the High Constitutional Court, the Independent National Electoral Commission, the Senate, the High Council for the Defense of Human Rights, and the High Court of Justice, have been suspended. The National Assembly, however, remains in place.

The military has indicated that the country's presidency will be collectively assumed by its officers, with consultations underway to appoint a prime minister and form a new government.

International Reactions and Concerns

The swift takeover has drawn international concern. Beyond the African Union's suspension, the United Nations has expressed deep concern over the unconstitutional change of power. France, a former colonial power, emphasised the importance of upholding democracy, fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law. Germany and Russia have also called for caution and restraint to prevent bloodshed.

Evidence/Data Box

• Date of Military Takeover: Tuesday, October 14, 2025
• African Union Suspension: Wednesday, October 15, 2025
• Projected Transition Period: 18 to 24 months for elections, under two years for civilian leadership.
• Population in Poverty: Approximately three-quarters of Madagascar's 30 million population live in poverty (World Bank, UN data).
• Youth Demographics: More than half of Madagascar's population is under 20 years old.

Unanswered Questions and Uncertainties

The exact whereabouts of former President Andry Rajoelina remain unconfirmed, though reports suggest he may have fled to France or Dubai. His office initially denounced the military's actions as an “attempted coup d'état” and an “illegal declaration,” insisting that Rajoelina remained in charge despite the impeachment vote. The long-term stability of the transitional government and its ability to deliver on promises of elections and institutional reforms also remain to be seen.

What to Watch Next

The immediate focus will be on Colonel Randrianirina's swearing-in ceremony on Friday, October 17, 2025, and the subsequent formation of a new transitional government. The international community will closely monitor the adherence to the promised timeline for a return to civilian rule and democratic elections. The response of regional bodies like SADC, which Rajoelina was chairing, will also be crucial in shaping Madagascar's immediate future.