African nations are embarking on a renewed drive to unlock the immense, yet largely untapped, potential of their blue economies. This comes 13 years after the formation of the Association of African Maritime Administrations (AAMA) in 2012, an organisation established with an ambitious mandate to transform the continent's maritime sector. Despite significant potential, progress has been slow due to systemic challenges, leaving the blue economy vulnerable to exploitation.

Kenya, strategically positioned along a major international shipping lane with a coastline stretching over 600 kilometres, is at the forefront of these efforts. The country possesses an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of approximately 142,400 square kilometres, with an additional claim to an extended EEZ of about 103,320 square kilometres, alongside 13,600 square kilometres of inland waters. These vast resources offer substantial opportunities for economic diversification beyond traditional land-based activities.

Historical and Political Context

The concept of the blue economy, defined as the sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods, and jobs while preserving the health of ocean ecosystems, gained significant traction in Africa following the 2018 Sustainable Blue Economy Conference in Nairobi. African leaders at this conference urged the African Union (AU) to develop a comprehensive strategy to guide the sustainable development and utilisation of aquatic resources. The resulting Africa Blue Economy Strategy was endorsed in October 2019 by the AU's Specialized Technical Committee on Agriculture, Rural Development, Water and Environment.

Kenya's commitment to the blue economy is further demonstrated by the establishment of the State Department for Fisheries and the Blue Economy in 2016, under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. This department's mandate includes coordinating blue economy initiatives to leverage the potential of oceans and coasts for food security, job creation, and economic growth.

Laws, Policy and Governance

Kenya has implemented several legislative and policy instruments to promote sustainable blue economy practices. These include the Fisheries Management and Development Act (2016), which focuses on conserving and sustainably managing fisheries resources, and the Maritime Zones Act (2012), which defines Kenya's maritime zones and regulates activities within them. The National Oceans and Fisheries Policy (2020) outlines strategies for sustainable resource management, marine conservation, and responsible maritime trade. Additionally, the Kenya Coast Guard Service Act (2018) enhances maritime security, combating illegal fishing and piracy.

Despite these frameworks, challenges persist, including a lack of effective policy implementation, insufficient capacity and technology, and inadequate mechanisms to collect revenue from foreign vessels. Fragmented management of coastal zones and a lack of capital also hinder progress.

Stakeholders and Testimonies

Various stakeholders, including government ministries, private sector entities, and civil society, are involved in shaping Kenya's blue economy agenda. The Kenya Marine Fisheries and Socio-Economic Development (KEMFSED) project has supported a consultative approach in developing the national strategy, ensuring diverse perspectives are integrated. Representatives from the Kenya Private Sector Alliance (KEPSA) have welcomed the strategy, anticipating improved investment climates and regulatory support, particularly in fisheries.

Evidence and Data

Kenya's blue economy encompasses a wide array of sectors, including fisheries, aquaculture, maritime transport, tourism, offshore oil and gas, and marine biotechnology. The fishing industry, while largely subsistence-based, contributes approximately 0.5% to Kenya's GDP and employs over 60,000 fishers directly, with an estimated 1.2 million people indirectly involved in the supply chain. Lake Victoria alone accounts for about 80% of Kenya's fish production.

The marine fisheries sector, however, remains significantly underexploited, with Kenya utilising only about 8% of its potential, estimated at 150,000 to 300,000 metric tonnes annually, valued at KES 21-42 billion. Aquaculture is seen as a promising area for growth, with potential to significantly increase fish production and contribute to food security.

Risks and Implications

The sustainable development of Kenya's blue economy faces several risks. These include overfishing, illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, pollution from industries and coastal development, habitat destruction, and the impacts of climate change. Maritime insecurity, including piracy and illicit trade, also poses a significant threat. Furthermore, border disputes, such as the ongoing maritime boundary dispute with Somalia over a potentially lucrative 100,000 square kilometre stretch believed to hold oil and gas deposits, create uncertainty and hinder full exploitation of resources.

Unknowns and Controversies

While the potential of the blue economy is widely acknowledged, specific timelines, costs, and safeguards for its full implementation remain areas requiring greater clarity. Analysts have urged stakeholders to provide more detailed information on these aspects to facilitate effective policy execution. The balance between economic exploitation and environmental preservation also presents an ongoing challenge, requiring careful management to avoid irreversible damage to marine ecosystems.

Timeline and Next Steps

The Africa Blue Economy Strategy, launched in February 2020, provides a framework for sustainable development across the continent. Kenya's National Blue Economy Strategy (2023-2027) was validated in February 2023, aligning with both the IGAD and AU Blue Economy Strategies. This national strategy outlines priorities such as sustainable natural resource management, optimising renewable energy use, responsible mineral extraction, and effective governance and financing.

What to Watch

Moving forward, key areas to watch include the implementation of the national strategy, particularly regarding investment in infrastructure such as industrial fish landing ports with cold storage and processing facilities. The development of aquaculture, with its potential to bridge the fish supply gap and create employment, will also be crucial. Continued efforts to combat illegal fishing and enhance maritime security will be essential for protecting Kenya's marine resources and ensuring equitable benefits for local communities. The resolution of maritime boundary disputes will also significantly impact the long-term potential of the blue economy.

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Related initiatives include the Kenya Market-led Aquaculture Programme (KMAP), which has focused on improving fish production, strengthening market systems, and creating an enabling policy environment for aquaculture development. Additionally, ongoing efforts by the African Union and regional bodies like IGAD to foster cross-learning and regional cooperation in blue economy development will be important for sustained progress across the continent.