At the Munich Security Conference, the bargaining chips are nations. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has drawn a line in the sand: Ukraine will not sign a peace deal without a 20-year security guarantee from the United States. It is a high-stakes poker game with the future of Europe—and the principle of sovereignty—on the table.

"Legally watertight." Those are the words Zelenskyy used. He is not interested in vague memorandums or "assurances" like the failed Budapest Memorandum of 1994. He wants a binding, 20-year commitment that commits American power to Ukraine's defense. The US has offered 15 years. The gap of five years is where the tension lies.

This is not just about time; it is about trust. "The Americans often return to the topic of concessions," Zelenskyy noted, his frustration palpable. He fears a peace deal that merely presses pause on the war, allowing Russia to rearm and attack again.

The African Perspective on Guarantees

For African nations, this debate is instructive. We have seen "peace deals" crumble in South Sudan, DRC, and Ethiopia because the guarantees were toothless. Zelenskyy’s insistence on a "European reassurance force" and a clear path to EU membership is a lesson in statecraft: Peace without power is a delusion.

The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, spoke of "partnership," but his conditions were stark—align with the US on climate, migration, and trade, or Washington goes it alone. It is a transactional diplomacy that Kenya knows well.

The Weight of Paper

Zelenskyy is fighting for a document that can stop tanks. It is a desperate, necessary fight. If he signs a weak deal, he betrays the sacrifice of his people. If he refuses, he risks losing American support entirely.

As the world watches Munich, the lesson is clear: In the modern era, sovereignty is not given; it is negotiated, guaranteed, and fortified with iron-clad contracts. Ukraine is refusing to be a buffer zone. It demands to be a fortress.